Voters backed data center limits in 44 of 45 referendums

Voters approved data center restrictions in 44 of the 45 completed local referendums that Redbud Consulting tracked across 12 states, and campaigns spent more than $380 million on television advertising that mentioned data centers, the Associated Press reported. Morgan Stanley told clients the Democratic sweep raises expectations of restrictions severe enough to split the country into areas open to new data centers and areas without them.

Every other constraint on the AI buildout this ledger records has a supplier, a price and a lead time. This one has a ballot.

The capacity was ordered years before the vote

ASML said in the second quarter that it would add 30% to its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity of around 65 systems for 2027, and 30% to its roughly 130-unit DUV immersion capacity, with a further 30% under investigation for 2028. It lifted 2026 guidance to €43-45bn from €36-40bn three months earlier, on €9.3bn of quarterly net sales (ASML). It closed 2025 with a €38.8bn backlog (ASML).

Those are commitments measured in years. A lithography slot for 2028 is reserved now, by a company that has already told the market what it will build. A county restriction is settled in a single evening, and 44 of them were settled that way last week. The gap between those two clocks is what turns Morgan Stanley's split map into a capital problem rather than a political one: the machines at the top of the chain are already committed, and the open question is which jurisdictions will let anyone switch them on.

The market is repricing the same question weekly

ASML fell 6.6% on Thursday and recovered 2.7% on Friday as the AI-driven selloff that wiped roughly $2.5 trillion off market value eased, with the Nasdaq up 1.1% and the S&P 500 up 0.3% (CNN). The ledger last recorded its market cap at $661bn in August (StockAnalysis). The hardware supply chain is being marked up and down in two-day moves while the decisions that determine where its output can sit are being taken one county at a time.

Permission is failing at both ends

Nvidia shipped H200 accelerators to New Matrix, a Chinese distributor cleared by the US Commerce Department that The New York Times found operating from an empty office, created 17 months ago and missing from the directory of the building it lists as its headquarters.

That is the referendum result inverted. In one case a local electorate withholds permission for infrastructure that is already financed. In the other a federal clearance grants permission on a company record that does not survive a visit to the address. Both are permission problems, and a chip order prices neither.

What the record does not yet say

• Whether the 44 approved restrictions survive permitting, which a referendum count does not establish.
• Whether the capacity ASML booked for 2027 and 2028 finds sites in the part of the country Morgan Stanley expects to stay open to new builds.
• Whether a clearance like New Matrix's is withdrawn now that the address has been checked.

Today's record answers none of the three. What it does show is the buildout's binding question moving away from who can supply the hardware, which is the part with published capacity numbers and a backlog, and toward who will permit it, which has neither.